Sektzia Nes Tziona 0–2 Ironi Kiryat Shmona

Sektzia Nes Tziona

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

8/22/2022

Ligat Ha'al · Round 1HaMoshava Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Sektzia Nes Tziona33%

×Draw27%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sektzia Nes TzionaExpected goals in this matchIroni Kiryat Shmona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

1.35

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.18

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.35

Ironi Kiryat Shmona creates 14% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 100 away

0.84

creates per match

1.14

1.56

allows per match

1.51

creates per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona

0.84

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.14

allows per match

Sektzia Nes Tziona

1.56

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

1.51

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sektzia Nes Tziona+0.00on par

Ironi Kiryat Shmona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sektzia Nes Tziona ↓

Ironi Kiryat Shmona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Sektzia Nes Tziona or draw

59%

Sektzia Nes Tziona or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

73%

Draw or Ironi Kiryat Shmona

67%

Winning margin

Sektzia Nes Tziona wins by 2+

13%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Sektzia Nes Tziona 1+ goals

69%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 2+ goals

33%

Sektzia Nes Tziona 3+ goals

12%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 1+ goals

74%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 2+ goals

39%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Sektzia Nes Tziona (draw refunded)

45%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sektzia Nes Tziona at home — creates 0.84, concedes 1.56 · 32 matches

Ironi Kiryat Shmona away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sektzia Nes Tziona attack 0.84 + Ironi Kiryat Shmona defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.18

Ironi Kiryat Shmona attack 1.14 + Sektzia Nes Tziona defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Sektzia Nes Tziona scores more

33%

level

27%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona scores more

41%

Ironi Kiryat Shmona at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Ironi Kiryat Shmona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff