Seattle Sounders 4–2 New York Red Bulls

Seattle Sounders

FT

4 – 2

HT: 2 – 1

New York Red Bulls

Nicolás Lodeiro 90', 23'

Sean Davis 83' (OG)

Jordan Morris 2'

Alejandro Romero Gamarra 67'

Aaron Long 27'

9/15/2019

Major League Soccer · Round 37CenturyLink Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Seattle Sounders52%

×Draw22%

New York Red Bulls25%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchNew York Red Bulls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.29

Seattle Sounders

1.94

New York Red Bulls

1.29

Seattle Sounders creates 50% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 21 away

2.21

creates per match

1.28

1.29

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

2.21

New York Red Bulls

1.28

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.29

New York Red Bulls

1.67

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Seattle Sounders-0.15scores less

New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

New York Red Bulls →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

75%

Seattle Sounders or New York Red Bulls

78%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

48%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

30%

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

86%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

58%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

30%

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

72%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

37%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

67%

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.21, concedes 1.29 · 16 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.67 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.21 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.94

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

52%

level

22%

New York Red Bulls scores more

25%

Seattle Sounders at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

Jordan Morris

Seattle Sounders · M

8.2

Match Events

2'

Jordan Morris↳ Gustav Svensson

12'

Aaron Long

23'

Nicolás Lodeiro↳ Jordan Morris

26'

Michael Murillo

27'

Aaron Long↳ Michael Murillo

38'

Jordy Delem

39'

Josh Sims← Cristian Casseres

46'

Tim Parker← Amro Tarek

66'

Víctor Rodríguez← Jordy Delem

67'

Alejandro Romero Gamarra↳ Daniel Royer

76'

Bradley Wright-Phillips

81'

Alex Muyl← Alejandro Romero Gamarra

83'

Sean DavisOwn goal

85'

Joevin Jones← Jordan Morris

89'

Cristian Roldán

90'

Nicolás Lodeiro↳ Cristian Roldán

90'

Saad Abdul-Salaam← Raúl Ruidíaz

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleNew

Overview

53%Possession47%

15Total Shots10

9Corners5

8Fouls6

Shots

15Total Shots10

6On Target6

6Off Target4

3Blocked0

9Inside Box7

6Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

471Total Passes404

332Accurate Passes271

70%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

8Fouls6

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2