Seattle Sounders 3–1 New York Red Bulls

Seattle Sounders

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

New York Red Bulls

H. Shipp 79'

J. Morris 66'

C. Dempsey 28' (pen)

B. Wright-Phillips 57'

3/19/2017

Major League Soccer · Round 4CenturyLink Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Seattle Sounders50%

×Draw23%

New York Red Bulls27%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Seattle SoundersExpected goals in this matchNew York Red Bulls

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.86

1.31

Seattle Sounders

1.86

New York Red Bulls

1.31

Seattle Sounders creates 42% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 22 away

2.11

creates per match

1.28

1.34

allows per match

1.62

creates per match

Seattle Sounders

2.11

New York Red Bulls

1.28

allows per match

Seattle Sounders

1.34

New York Red Bulls

1.62

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Seattle Sounders-0.11scores less

New York Red Bulls-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Seattle Sounders ↓

New York Red Bulls →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Seattle Sounders or draw

73%

Seattle Sounders or New York Red Bulls

77%

Draw or New York Red Bulls

50%

Winning margin

Seattle Sounders wins by 2+

28%

New York Red Bulls wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Seattle Sounders 1+ goals

84%

Seattle Sounders 2+ goals

55%

Seattle Sounders 3+ goals

28%

New York Red Bulls 1+ goals

73%

New York Red Bulls 2+ goals

38%

New York Red Bulls 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Seattle Sounders (draw refunded)

65%

New York Red Bulls (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Seattle Sounders at home — creates 2.11, concedes 1.34 · 17 matches

New York Red Bulls away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.62 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Seattle Sounders attack 2.11 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.86

New York Red Bulls attack 1.28 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Seattle Sounders scores more

50%

level

23%

New York Red Bulls scores more

27%

Seattle Sounders at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Seattle Sounders will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

C. Roldan

Seattle Sounders · M

8.2

Match Events

25'

Felipe Martins

27'

Luis Robles

28'

C. DempseyPenalty

30'

Fredrik Gulbrandsen

57'

M. Grella← F. Gulbrandsen

57'

B. Wright-Phillips↳ S. Zizzo

62'

Bradley Wright-Phillips

65'

Á. Fernández← O. Fisher

66'

J. Morris↳ N. Lodeiro

74'

78'

79'

81'

81'

A. Muyl← D. Royer

90'

Álvaro Fernández

90+1'

H. Wingo← C. Dempsey

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SeattleNew

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots10

2Corners4

13Fouls16

Shots

13Total Shots10

5On Target2

5Off Target5

3Blocked3

6Inside Box4

7Outside Box6

Passing

48%Possession52%

457Total Passes471

343Accurate Passes359

75%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

4Offsides0