New York Red Bulls vs Seattle Sounders — Major League Soccer 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 16+ matches
New York Red Bulls39%
Seattle Sounders37%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 19 home / 16 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over58
- Under42
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
New York Red Bulls ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
New York Red Bulls at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.49 · 19 matches
Seattle Sounders away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.26 · 16 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
New York Red Bulls attack 1.84 + Seattle Sounders defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.55
Seattle Sounders attack 1.49 + New York Red Bulls defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.49
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 39%?"
New York Red Bulls at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 39% does not mean "New York Red Bulls will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Vancouver Whitecaps
San Jose Earthquakes
Real Salt Lake
FC Dallas
Los Angeles FCSeattle Sounders
Houston Dynamo
Minnesota United FC
Los Angeles Galaxy
San Diego
Colorado Rapids
St. Louis City
Portland Timbers
Austin
Sporting Kansas City
Nashville SC
Inter Miami
Chicago Fire
New England RevolutionNew York Red Bulls
Charlotte
FC Cincinnati
New York City FC
DC United
Columbus Crew
CF Montreal
Orlando City SC
Toronto FC
Atlanta United FC
Philadelphia UnionIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
New York Red Bulls host Seattle Sounders on Sunday, 19 June 2016 at 23:30. The match is part of the Major League Soccer 2026/2027 season.
New York Red Bulls 2 – 0 Seattle Sounders
New York Red Bulls beat Seattle Sounders 2-0 in Major League Soccer on June 19, 2016.
Goals: M. Grella (18', 59').
Seattle Sounders controlled possession (52%) and registered 16 shots to 11.
The match was played at Red Bull Arena in Harrison.