SDYuShOR 8 1–0 Akademiya Ontustik: Result & Stats

SDYuShOR 8

1 – 0

Akademiya Ontustik

5/22/2021

Cup · 3rd Preliminary RoundAstana Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SDYuShOR 843%

×Draw22%

Akademiya Ontustik36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SDYuShOR 8Expected goals in this matchAkademiya Ontustik

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.96

1.77

SDYuShOR 8

1.96

Akademiya Ontustik

1.77

SDYuShOR 8 creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

2.50

creates per match

1.71

1.83

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8

2.50

Akademiya Ontustik

1.71

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8

1.83

Akademiya Ontustik

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw

64%

SDYuShOR 8 or Akademiya Ontustik

78%

Draw or Akademiya Ontustik

57%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+

24%

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals

86%

SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals

58%

SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals

31%

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals

83%

Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals

53%

Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)

55%

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.43 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.50 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.96

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.71 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more

43%

level

22%

Akademiya Ontustik scores more

36%

SDYuShOR 8 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "SDYuShOR 8 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff