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Akademiya Ontustik vs SDYuShOR 8 — 1. Division 2019

Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
FT
1 – 4
SDYuShOR 8
SDYuShOR 8
10/19/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 10Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Akademiya Ontustik32%
×Draw22%
SDYuShOR 846%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Akademiya Ontustik
1.53
SDYuShOR 8
1.87

SDYuShOR 8 creates 22% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 6 away

creates per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.73
SDYuShOR 8
1.83

allows per match

Akademiya Ontustik
1.91
SDYuShOR 8
1.33

finishing

Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par
SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Akademiya Ontustik ↓

SDYuShOR 8 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Akademiya Ontustik or draw
54%
Akademiya Ontustik or SDYuShOR 8
78%
Draw or SDYuShOR 8
68%

Winning margin

Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
15%
SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
78%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
45%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
20%
SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals
85%
SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals
56%
SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
41%
SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Akademiya Ontustik at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.91 · 77 matches

SDYuShOR 8 away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.73 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.53

SDYuShOR 8 attack 1.83 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Akademiya Ontustik scores more
32%
level
22%
SDYuShOR 8 scores more
46%

SDYuShOR 8 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "SDYuShOR 8 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Akademiya Ontustik vs SDYuShOR 8

SDYuShOR 8 beat Akademiya Ontustik 4-1 in 1. Division on October 19, 2020.

The match was played at Sportkompleks BÏIK pole 9 in Shymkent.