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SDYuShOR 8 vs Akademiya Ontustik — 1. Division 2019

SDYuShOR 8
SDYuShOR 8
FT
3 – 2
Akademiya Ontustik
Akademiya Ontustik
9/21/20201. Division1. Division · Group 1 - 3UTB Talgar

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

SDYuShOR 850%
×Draw21%
Akademiya Ontustik29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SDYuShOR 8
2.14
Akademiya Ontustik
1.62

SDYuShOR 8 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 76 away

creates per match

SDYuShOR 8
2.33
Akademiya Ontustik
1.24

allows per match

SDYuShOR 8
2.00
Akademiya Ontustik
1.95

finishing

SDYuShOR 8+0.00on par
Akademiya Ontustik+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SDYuShOR 8 ↓

Akademiya Ontustik →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

SDYuShOR 8 or draw
71%
SDYuShOR 8 or Akademiya Ontustik
79%
Draw or Akademiya Ontustik
50%

Winning margin

SDYuShOR 8 wins by 2+
29%
Akademiya Ontustik wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

SDYuShOR 8 1+ goals
88%
SDYuShOR 8 2+ goals
63%
SDYuShOR 8 3+ goals
36%
Akademiya Ontustik 1+ goals
80%
Akademiya Ontustik 2+ goals
48%
Akademiya Ontustik 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

SDYuShOR 8 (draw refunded)
63%
Akademiya Ontustik (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SDYuShOR 8 at home — creates 2.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Akademiya Ontustik away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.95 · 76 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SDYuShOR 8 attack 2.33 + Akademiya Ontustik defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 2.14

Akademiya Ontustik attack 1.24 + SDYuShOR 8 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

SDYuShOR 8 scores more
50%
level
21%
Akademiya Ontustik scores more
29%

SDYuShOR 8 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "SDYuShOR 8 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SDYuShOR 8 vs Akademiya Ontustik

SDYuShOR 8 beat Akademiya Ontustik 3-2 in 1. Division on September 21, 2020.

The match was played at UTB Talgar in Talgar.