SD Logroñés 2–2 Cornellà: Result & Stats

SD Logroñés

FT

2 – 2

HT: 2 – 2

Cornellà

Rubio 34'

Trespalacios 21'

Sergio Ayala 24'

Claudio 13'

10/22/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 9Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

SD Logroñés44%

×Draw29%

Cornellà27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SD LogroñésExpected goals in this matchCornellà

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.91

SD Logroñés

1.23

Cornellà

0.91

SD Logroñés creates 35% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 19 away

1.03

creates per match

0.68

1.14

allows per match

1.42

creates per match

SD Logroñés

1.03

Cornellà

0.68

allows per match

SD Logroñés

1.14

Cornellà

1.42

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Cornellà+0.00on par

Total goals

Under64
Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SD Logroñés ↓

Cornellà →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

36%64%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

SD Logroñés or draw

73%

SD Logroñés or Cornellà

71%

Draw or Cornellà

56%

Winning margin

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

19%

Cornellà wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

71%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

35%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

13%

Cornellà 1+ goals

60%

Cornellà 2+ goals

23%

Cornellà 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

61%

Cornellà (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SD Logroñés at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.14 · 37 matches

Cornellà away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SD Logroñés attack 1.03 + Cornellà defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.23

Cornellà attack 0.68 + SD Logroñés defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

SD Logroñés scores more

44%

level

29%

Cornellà scores more

27%

SD Logroñés at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "SD Logroñés will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

13'

21'

24'

34'

55'

62'

Mamor Niang← Carles Garrido

62'

Marc Tenas← Canario

68'

Fabián Luzzi← Óscar Fernández

71'

S. Ayala

75'

José Mas← Sergio Ayala

75'

M. Gorriti← Kike López

80'

Damià Sabater← Rubio

90'

E. Verges

90'

Jon Aurtenetxe← Jaime Paredes

90+3'

Koffi← Eudald Vergés

SD

Cornellà

Meikher

▼

López

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Rubio

▼

Fernández

Escobar

Manager: Andrés García

68'▲Fabián Luzzi←▼Óscar Fernández

80'▲Damià Sabater←▼Rubio

90'▲Jon Aurtenetxe←▼Jaime Paredes

SD Logroñés substitutes

LuzziSabaterAurtenetxeCovaJaráizArratiaMartínezMurúaRodríguezMartíCarmona

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

62'▲Mamor Niang←▼Carles Garrido

62'▲Marc Tenas←▼Canario

75'▲José Mas←▼Sergio Ayala

75'▲M. Gorriti←▼Kike López

90+3'▲Koffi←▼Eudald Vergés

Cornellà substitutes

NiangTenasMasGorritiKoffiCherradiHao

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Cornellà

SD Logroñés and Cornellà drew 2-2 in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on October 22, 2023.

Goals: Claudio (13'), Trespalacios (21'), Sergio Ayala (24'), Rubio (34').

The match was played at Estadio Nuevo Municipal Las Gaunas in Logroño.

SD Logroñés vs Cornellà — Primera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: SD Logroñés vs Cornellà