Cornellà 1–1 SD Logroñés: Result & Stats

Cornellà

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

SD Logroñés

Xesc Fullana 29' (pen)

Julen Monreal 3'

3/4/2023

Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26RCDE Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Cornellà46%

×Draw30%

SD Logroñés24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CornellàExpected goals in this matchSD Logroñés

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

0.80

Cornellà

1.22

SD Logroñés

0.80

Cornellà creates 52% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 31 away

1.08

creates per match

0.90

0.71

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Cornellà

1.08

SD Logroñés

0.90

allows per match

Cornellà

0.71

SD Logroñés

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cornellà+0.00on par

SD Logroñés+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cornellà ↓

SD Logroñés →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Cornellà or draw

76%

Cornellà or SD Logroñés

70%

Draw or SD Logroñés

54%

Winning margin

Cornellà wins by 2+

20%

SD Logroñés wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cornellà 1+ goals

70%

Cornellà 2+ goals

34%

Cornellà 3+ goals

12%

SD Logroñés 1+ goals

55%

SD Logroñés 2+ goals

19%

SD Logroñés 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cornellà (draw refunded)

65%

SD Logroñés (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cornellà at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

SD Logroñés away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.35 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cornellà attack 1.08 + SD Logroñés defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.22

SD Logroñés attack 0.90 + Cornellà defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Cornellà scores more

46%

level

30%

SD Logroñés scores more

24%

Cornellà at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Cornellà will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

3'

Julen Monreal

19'

C. Redruello Nimo

29'

Xesc FullanaPenalty

46'

Borja Sánchez← Asier Córdoba

46'

Elosegi← Julen Monreal

69'

Raúl Tavares← Mamor Niang

74'

Jordi Ortega← Jon Madrazo

74'

M. Rodríguez← Jaime Paredes

76'

Kike López← Xesc Fullana

76'

Nahuel Arroyo← Alfred Planas

87'

J. Ortega

88'

Alain Ribeiro← Emilio Lozano

90+3'

B. Martinez

Cornellà

SD

Lario

Caneda

▼

Paredes

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Gonzalo Riutort

69'▲Raúl Tavares←▼Mamor Niang

76'▲Kike López←▼Xesc Fullana

76'▲Nahuel Arroyo←▼Alfred Planas

Cornellà substitutes

TavaresLópezArroyoBarbopoulosFalcónCanalesVilaplanaMartínezFolchValterRibellesRosillo

Manager: Raúl Llona

46'▲Borja Sánchez←▼Asier Córdoba

46'▲Elosegi←▼Julen Monreal

74'▲Jordi Ortega←▼Jon Madrazo

74'▲M. Rodríguez←▼Jaime Paredes

88'▲Alain Ribeiro←▼Emilio Lozano

SD Logroñés substitutes

SánchezElosegiOrtegaRodríguezRibeiroCastriSerranoMartíMuñoz

Match Recap: Cornellà vs SD Logroñés

Cornellà and SD Logroñés drew 1-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on March 4, 2023.

Goals: Julen Monreal (3'), Xesc Fullana (29' pen).

The match was played at RCDE Stadium in Cornella de Llobregat.

Cornellà vs SD Logroñés — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Cornellà vs SD Logroñés