Scunthorpe 1–2 Rochdale: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Rochdale

E. Onariase 13'

M. Taylor 83'

L. Kelly 51'

2/19/2022

League Two · Round 33Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Scunthorpe35%

×Draw29%

Rochdale36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchRochdale

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.15

Scunthorpe

1.13

Rochdale

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 56 away

0.89

creates per match

0.95

1.35

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Rochdale

0.95

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Rochdale

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Rochdale+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Rochdale →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

64%

Scunthorpe or Rochdale

71%

Draw or Rochdale

65%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

14%

Rochdale wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

68%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

31%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Rochdale 1+ goals

68%

Rochdale 2+ goals

32%

Rochdale 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

49%

Rochdale (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Rochdale away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.36 · 56 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Rochdale defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.13

Rochdale attack 0.95 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

35%

level

29%

Rochdale scores more

36%

Rochdale at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6

E. Onariase

Scunthorpe · D

7.9

Match Events

13'

17'

28'

38'

46'

51'

51'

70'

72'

80'

A. Beestin← L. Feeney

83'

M. Taylor

89'

G. Broadbent← J. Ball

90'

Anthony Grant

90+5'

George Broadbent

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeRochdale

Overview

51%Possession49%

11Total Shots11

1Corners6

11Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots11

4On Target5

4Off Target4

3Blocked2

4Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

51%Possession49%

442Total Passes429

331Accurate Passes306

75%Pass Accuracy71%

Goalkeeping

3Saves3

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

2Offsides3