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Rochdale vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Rochdale
Rochdale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
8/14/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Rochdale50%
×Draw25%
Scunthorpe25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rochdale
1.63
Scunthorpe
1.07

Rochdale creates 52% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 64 away

creates per match

Rochdale
1.38
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Rochdale
1.32
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
28%72%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw
75%
Rochdale or Scunthorpe
75%
Draw or Scunthorpe
50%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+
27%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals
80%
Rochdale 2+ goals
48%
Rochdale 3+ goals
22%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
66%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
29%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)
67%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.32 · 56 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.38 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.63

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Rochdale defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Rochdale scores more
50%
level
25%
Scunthorpe scores more
25%

Rochdale at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
E. O'ConnellRochdaleRochdale · D
7.9

Match Events

32'
A. Beestin← R. Loft
65'
A. Odoh← D. Cashman
68'
M. Hippolyte← A. Kenyon
82'
S. Dooley← S. Graham
82'
M. O'Malley← L. Thompson

Possession

57%Rochdale

Shots

14Rochdale

Pass accuracy

54%Rochdale

Statistics

RochdaleScunthorpe
Overview
57%Possession43%
14Total Shots11
6Corners1
5Fouls11
Shots
14Total Shots11
2On Target2
8Off Target4
4Blocked5
9Inside Box6
5Outside Box5
Passing
57%Possession43%
464Total Passes366
374Accurate Passes258
81%Pass Accuracy70%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
5Fouls11
3Offsides0

League Two: Rochdale 0–0 Scunthorpe

Rochdale and Scunthorpe drew 0-0 in League Two on August 14, 2021.

Rochdale controlled possession (57%) and registered 14 shots to 11.

The match was played at Crown Oil Arena in Rochdale, Greater Manchester.