Rochdale 3–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Rochdale

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Scunthorpe

A. Wilbraham 60', 14'

K. Ntlhe 51'

J. Hallam 16'

3/23/2019

League One · Round 39Crown Oil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Rochdale40%

×Draw25%

Scunthorpe35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RochdaleExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

1.38

Rochdale

1.51

Scunthorpe

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 70 home / 29 away

1.33

creates per match

1.21

1.54

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Rochdale

1.33

Scunthorpe

1.21

allows per match

Rochdale

1.54

Scunthorpe

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Rochdale+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rochdale ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Rochdale or draw

65%

Rochdale or Scunthorpe

75%

Draw or Scunthorpe

60%

Winning margin

Rochdale wins by 2+

20%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Rochdale 1+ goals

78%

Rochdale 2+ goals

44%

Rochdale 3+ goals

19%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

75%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

40%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Rochdale (draw refunded)

54%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rochdale at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.54 · 70 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.69 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rochdale attack 1.33 + Scunthorpe defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.51

Scunthorpe attack 1.21 + Rochdale defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Rochdale scores more

40%

level

25%

Scunthorpe scores more

35%

Rochdale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Rochdale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

A. Wilbraham↳ M. Done

16'

J. Hallam

27'

Harrison McGahey

42'

Tony McMahon

46'

L. Butroid← A. McMahon

51'

K. Ntlhe

60'

A. Wilbraham↳ R. McLaughlin

71'

A. Hammill← J. Perch

79'

C. Andrew← A. Wilbraham

86'

J. Keohane← K. Ntlhe

90+2'

S. Dooley← M. Done

Rochdale

Scunthorpe

25

Alnwick

4

▼

McMahon

14

▼

23

26

21

6

22

30

⚽

17

29

24

4

2

A

McLaughli

6

Ebanks-La

3

⚽

▼

Ntlhe

39

Bunney

16

A

▼

Done

10

Camps

14

Rathbone

18

⚽2

▼

Wilbraham

40

Henderson

Manager: B. Barry-Murphy

79'▲C. Andrew←▼A. Wilbraham

86'▲J. Keohane←▼K. Ntlhe

90+2'▲S. Dooley←▼M. Done

Rochdale substitutes

9Andrew13Keohane7Dooley27Hamilton19Inman25Adshead31Wade

Manager: S. McCall

46'▲L. Butroid←▼A. McMahon

71'▲A. Hammill←▼J. Perch

Scunthorpe substitutes

33Butroid47Hammill3Borthwick-Jackson15Lewis5Webster27Flatt24Olomola