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Scunthorpe vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 0
Colchester
Colchester
J. Nuttall 11'
N. Chilvers 76', 60'
O. Edwards 67'
3/12/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 36Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe34%
×Draw29%
Colchester37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.11
Colchester
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 159 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
63%
Scunthorpe or Colchester
71%
Draw or Colchester
66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Colchester wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
67%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
30%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
10%
Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
32%
Colchester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
48%
Colchester (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Colchester attack 0.96 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
34%
level
29%
Colchester scores more
37%

Colchester at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
N. ChilversColchesterColchester · M
9.2

Match Events

11'
J. Nuttall↳ L. Feeney
27'
Luke Matheson
35'
Luke Matheson
35'
Luke Matheson
46'
E. Onariase← H. Hackney
54'
Joe Nuttall
55'
T. Wright← M. Kenlock
55'
J. Akinde← L. Hannant
60'
N. Chilvers
65'
T. Sinclair← A. Beestin
67'
O. Edwards↳ F. Sears
72'
Noah Chilvers
76'
N. Chilvers↳ O. Edwards
77'
M. Welch-Hayes← O. Edwards

Possession

45%Scunthorpe

Shots

9Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

47%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeColchester
Overview
45%Possession55%
9Total Shots16
3Corners8
13Fouls11
Shots
9Total Shots16
2On Target9
5Off Target6
2Blocked1
5Inside Box11
4Outside Box5
Passing
45%Possession55%
307Total Passes371
183Accurate Passes254
60%Pass Accuracy68%
Goalkeeping
6Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls11
3Yellow Cards1
1Red Cards0
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Colchester

Colchester beat Scunthorpe 3-1 in League Two on March 12, 2022.

Goals: J. Nuttall (11'), N. Chilvers (60', 76'), O. Edwards (67').

Colchester controlled possession (55%) and registered 16 shots to 9.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.