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Colchester vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Colchester
Colchester
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
A. Beestin 5'
1/29/2021League TwoLeague Two · Round 27JobServe Community Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Colchester52%
×Draw25%
Scunthorpe23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Colchester
1.60
Scunthorpe
0.97

Colchester creates 65% more chances

Season form · 161 home / 64 away

creates per match

Colchester
1.32
Scunthorpe
0.83

allows per match

Colchester
1.10
Scunthorpe
1.88

finishing

Colchester+0.00on par
Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Colchester ↓

Scunthorpe →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Colchester or draw
77%
Colchester or Scunthorpe
75%
Draw or Scunthorpe
48%

Winning margin

Colchester wins by 2+
27%
Scunthorpe wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Colchester 1+ goals
80%
Colchester 2+ goals
47%
Colchester 3+ goals
22%
Scunthorpe 1+ goals
62%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
25%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Colchester (draw refunded)
69%
Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Colchester at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.10 · 161 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Colchester attack 1.32 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.60

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Colchester defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Colchester scores more
52%
level
25%
Scunthorpe scores more
23%

Colchester at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14
N. ChilversColchesterColchester · M
7.5

Match Events

5'
A. Beestin↳ R. Loft
15'
T. Lapslie← B. Stevenson
16'
S. George← D. Gerken
18'
L. Spence← J. Karacan
45'
Tom Eastman
53'
Junior Brown
57'
Callum Harriott
60'
A. Oteh← K. Poku
69'
J. McAtee← D. Green
75'
Tommy Smith
78'
M. Folivi← J. Brown
82'
M. Hippolyte← R. Loft
84'
Abo Eisa

Possession

63%Colchester

Shots

15Colchester

Pass accuracy

56%Colchester

Statistics

ColchesterScunthorpe
Overview
63%Possession37%
15Total Shots3
3Corners2
10Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots3
2On Target2
7Off Target1
6Blocked0
5Inside Box2
10Outside Box1
Passing
63%Possession37%
472Total Passes291
358Accurate Passes176
76%Pass Accuracy60%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
10Fouls15
3Yellow Cards2
1Offsides1

Match Recap: Colchester vs Scunthorpe

Scunthorpe beat Colchester 1-0 in League Two on January 29, 2021.

Goals: A. Beestin (5').

Colchester controlled possession (63%) and registered 15 shots to 3.

The match was played at JobServe Community Stadium in Colchester, Essex.