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Scunthorpe vs Colchester — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Colchester
Colchester
T. Smith 26'
12/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 10Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe34%
×Draw29%
Colchester37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.11
Colchester
1.16

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 159 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Colchester
0.96

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Colchester
1.33

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Colchester+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Colchester →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
63%
Scunthorpe or Colchester
71%
Draw or Colchester
66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Colchester wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
67%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
30%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
10%
Colchester 1+ goals
69%
Colchester 2+ goals
32%
Colchester 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
48%
Colchester (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Colchester away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.33 · 159 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Colchester defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Colchester attack 0.96 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
34%
level
29%
Colchester scores more
37%

Colchester at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Colchester will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
D. GerkenColchesterColchester · G
8.2

Match Events

26'
T. Smith↳ C. Bramall
35'
Miles Welch-Hayes
42'
J. Bedeau← H. McGahey
46'
R. Loft← J. Taylor
53'
O. Sowunmi← C. Harriott
59'
M. Folivi← J. Brown
62'
Ryan Loft
71'
K. Poku← L. Norris
71'
R. Clampin← C. Senior
74'
Abobaker Eisa← D. Green
77'
J. Rowe← J. Clarke
86'
Ryan Clampin

Possession

62%Scunthorpe

Shots

21Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

57%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeColchester
Overview
62%Possession38%
21Total Shots6
5Corners2
14Fouls10
Shots
21Total Shots6
5On Target2
8Off Target2
8Blocked2
12Inside Box1
9Outside Box5
Passing
62%Possession38%
491Total Passes294
381Accurate Passes174
78%Pass Accuracy59%
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
Discipline
14Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
3Offsides1

League Two: Scunthorpe 0–1 Colchester

Colchester beat Scunthorpe 1-0 in League Two on December 8, 2020.

Goals: T. Smith (26').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (62%) and registered 21 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.