Scunthorpe 0–2 Cheltenham: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Cheltenham

C. Wright 41'

S. Smith 25'

2/27/2021

League Two · Round 32Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe34%

×Draw28%

Cheltenham38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchCheltenham

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.21

Scunthorpe

1.14

Cheltenham

1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 95 away

0.89

creates per match

1.06

1.35

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Cheltenham

1.06

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Cheltenham

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Cheltenham →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

62%

Scunthorpe or Cheltenham

72%

Draw or Cheltenham

66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

14%

Cheltenham wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

68%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

32%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Cheltenham 1+ goals

70%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

34%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

48%

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

34%

level

28%

Cheltenham scores more

38%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Griffiths

Cheltenham · G

7.7

Match Events

6'

E. Onariase← G. Taft

25'

S. Smith

41'

C. Wright

46'

Abobaker Eisa← R. Loft

61'

Conor Thomas

61'

A. Beestin← J. Karacan

65'

G. Lloyd← A. May

65'

I. Vassilev← C. Wright

77'

J. Hallam← K. van Veen

79'

A. Williams← S. Smith

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeCheltenham

Overview

56%Possession44%

9Total Shots8

7Corners2

6Fouls11

Shots

9Total Shots8

3On Target4

4Off Target2

2Blocked2

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

434Total Passes339

297Accurate Passes195

68%Pass Accuracy58%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

Discipline

6Fouls11

0Yellow Cards1

3Offsides1