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Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Cheltenham
Cheltenham
J. McAtee 17'
2/8/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 32Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe34%
×Draw28%
Cheltenham38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.14
Cheltenham
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 95 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Cheltenham
1.06

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Cheltenham
1.38

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Cheltenham+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Cheltenham →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
62%
Scunthorpe or Cheltenham
72%
Draw or Cheltenham
66%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
14%
Cheltenham wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
68%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
32%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
11%
Cheltenham 1+ goals
70%
Cheltenham 2+ goals
34%
Cheltenham 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
48%
Cheltenham (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Cheltenham away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.38 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Cheltenham defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.14

Cheltenham attack 1.06 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
34%
level
28%
Cheltenham scores more
38%

Cheltenham at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13
I. LawlorScunthorpeScunthorpe · G
8.0

Match Events

17'
J. McAtee↳ K. van Veen
53'
John Mcatee
57'
T. Nichols← C. Thomas
61'
James Perch
65'
R. Reid← L. Varney
75'
A. Addai← J. Doyle-Hayes
82'
Sean Long
90+1'
G. Miller← K. van Veen
90+4'
A. Beestin← J. McAtee

Possession

41%Scunthorpe

Shots

15Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

48%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeCheltenham
Overview
41%Possession59%
15Total Shots9
4Corners2
13Fouls15
Shots
15Total Shots9
2On Target5
9Off Target1
4Blocked3
8Inside Box5
7Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
351Total Passes483
206Accurate Passes315
59%Pass Accuracy65%
Goalkeeping
5Saves1
Discipline
13Fouls15
2Yellow Cards1
7Offsides2

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Cheltenham

Scunthorpe beat Cheltenham 1-0 in League Two on February 8, 2020.

Goals: J. McAtee (17').

Cheltenham controlled possession (59%) and registered 9 shots to 15.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.