Cheltenham 4–1 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Cheltenham

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Scunthorpe

C. Thomas 90+4' (pen)

A. Addai 73'

C. Raglan 71'

R. Broom 68'

L. Novak 55'

8/10/2019

League Two · Round 2Jonny-Rocks Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cheltenham53%

×Draw24%

Scunthorpe22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CheltenhamExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.00

Cheltenham

1.69

Scunthorpe

1.00

Cheltenham creates 69% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 64 away

1.49

creates per match

0.83

1.17

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cheltenham

1.49

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Cheltenham

1.17

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cheltenham+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cheltenham ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Cheltenham or draw

78%

Cheltenham or Scunthorpe

76%

Draw or Scunthorpe

47%

Winning margin

Cheltenham wins by 2+

29%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Cheltenham 1+ goals

82%

Cheltenham 2+ goals

50%

Cheltenham 3+ goals

24%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

63%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

26%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Cheltenham (draw refunded)

71%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cheltenham at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.17 · 93 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cheltenham attack 1.49 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Cheltenham defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cheltenham scores more

53%

level

24%

Scunthorpe scores more

22%

Cheltenham at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cheltenham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Y. Songo'o

46'

J. Debayo← C. Hussey

55'

L. Novak↳ M. Lund

68'

R. Broom↳ M. Sheaf

69'

A. Addai← T. Campbell

71'

C. Raglan↳ C. Clements

73'

A. Addai↳ G. Reilly

74'

R. Colclough← Y. Songoo

84'

J. McAtee← R. Slater

87'

C. Thomas← C. Clements

90'

H. McGahey

90+4'

C. ThomasPenalty

Cheltenham

Scunthorpe

25

6

2

3

26

4

A

Lund

5

▼

Songo'o

20

Gilliead

27

▼

Slater

17

⚽

9

1

4

3

▼

Hussey

5

⚽

Raglan

2

Long

8

A

▼

Clements

21

Doyle-Hay

11

⚽

Broom

14

A

Sheaf

20

A

Reilly

10

▼

Campbell

Manager: M. Duff

46'▲J. Debayo←▼C. Hussey

69'▲A. Addai←▼T. Campbell

87'▲C. Thomas←▼C. Clements

Cheltenham substitutes

17Debayo16Addai7Thomas22Lovett6Bowry19Lloyd26Greaves

Manager: P. Hurst

74'▲R. Colclough←▼Y. Songoo

84'▲J. McAtee←▼R. Slater

Scunthorpe substitutes

7Colclough45McAtee23McArdle8Horsfield1Watson48Dawson11Hammill