Scunthorpe 0–5 Cambridge United: Result & Stats

Scunthorpe

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Cambridge United

J. Ironside 83', 61'

L. Hannant 51'

P. Mullin 44' (pen), 35' (pen)

10/17/2020

League Two · Round 6Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe28%

×Draw28%

Cambridge United44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchCambridge United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

1.29

Scunthorpe

0.98

Cambridge United

1.29

Cambridge United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

0.89

creates per match

1.22

1.35

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Cambridge United

1.22

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Cambridge United

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Cambridge United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

56%

Scunthorpe or Cambridge United

72%

Draw or Cambridge United

72%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

10%

Cambridge United wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

62%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

26%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Cambridge United 1+ goals

72%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

37%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

39%

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

28%

level

28%

Cambridge United scores more

44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

20

J. Ironside

Cambridge United · F

8.5

Match Events

35'

P. MullinPenalty

44'

P. MullinPenalty

47'

48'

51'

52'

55'

55'

59'

Abobaker Eisa← R. Loft

61'

F. Vincent← J. McAtee

61'

J. Ironside↳ P. Mullin

62'

H. Boateng← P. Digby

63'

I. El Mizouni← L. Hannant

64'

H. Knibbs← P. Mullin

77'

Joe Ironside

83'

J. Ironside↳ J. Iredale

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeCambridge

Overview

32%Possession68%

8Total Shots28

3Corners8

13Fouls8

Shots

8Total Shots28

2On Target9

2Off Target8

4Blocked11

5Inside Box20

3Outside Box8

Passing

32%Possession68%

265Total Passes509

174Accurate Passes409

66%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls8

4Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

0Offsides3