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Scunthorpe vs Cambridge United — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Cambridge United
Cambridge United
P. Mullin 61'
I. El Mizouni 16'
2/11/2020League TwoLeague Two · Round 33Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe28%
×Draw28%
Cambridge United44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
0.98
Cambridge United
1.29

Cambridge United creates 32% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 68 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Cambridge United
1.22

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Cambridge United
1.06

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Cambridge United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Cambridge United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
56%
Scunthorpe or Cambridge United
72%
Draw or Cambridge United
72%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
10%
Cambridge United wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
62%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
26%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
8%
Cambridge United 1+ goals
72%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
37%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
39%
Cambridge United (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Cambridge United away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.06 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Cambridge United defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.98

Cambridge United attack 1.22 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
28%
level
28%
Cambridge United scores more
44%

Cambridge United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25
C. BurtonCambridge UnitedCambridge United · G
7.6

Match Events

16'
I. El Mizouni
52'
R. Lambe← L. ONeil
61'
P. Mullin
67'
G. Miller← L. Sutton
70'
V. Adeboyejo← P. Mullin
75'
R. Colclough← Abobaker Eisa
75'
H. Knibbs← I. El Mizouni
80'
B. Liddle← J. Perch

Possession

59%Scunthorpe

Shots

14Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

56%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeCambridge
Overview
59%Possession41%
14Total Shots6
3Corners3
6Fouls14
Shots
14Total Shots6
4On Target4
7Off Target2
3Blocked0
8Inside Box4
6Outside Box2
Passing
59%Possession41%
465Total Passes313
316Accurate Passes165
68%Pass Accuracy53%
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
Discipline
6Fouls14
4Offsides2

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Cambridge United

Cambridge United beat Scunthorpe 2-0 in League Two on February 11, 2020.

Goals: I. El Mizouni (16'), P. Mullin (61').

Scunthorpe controlled possession (59%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.