Cambridge United 3–2 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Scunthorpe

P. Lewis 73'

H. Knibbs 54', 52'

R. McArdle 60', 41'

8/20/2019

League Two · Round 4Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Cambridge United56%

×Draw24%

Scunthorpe20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.90

Cambridge United

1.69

Scunthorpe

0.90

Cambridge United creates 88% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 64 away

1.49

creates per match

0.83

0.97

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.49

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.97

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

80%

Cambridge United or Scunthorpe

76%

Draw or Scunthorpe

44%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

31%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

82%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

50%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

24%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

59%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

23%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

74%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.49, concedes 0.97 · 65 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.49 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.69

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Cambridge United defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Cambridge United scores more

56%

level

24%

Scunthorpe scores more

20%

Cambridge United at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

21'

J. Perch

26'

A. Gilliead

27'

R. Slater← A. Hammill

39'

H. Darling

41'

R. McArdle↳ R. Slater

45'

52'

54'

60'

60'

R. McArdle↳ R. Slater

65'

68'

72'

73'

77'

M. Richards← H. Knibbs

80'

J. Clarke← H. McGahey

Cambridge

Scunthorpe

1

Watson

6

Butler

14

Perch

23

⚽2

McArdle

3

Ntlhe

26

▼

McGahey

11

▼

4

20

9

30

1

5

4

8

▼

O'Neil

17

Davies

16

Darling

11

▼

Dunk

22

⚽A

Lewis

30

Roles

26

⚽2

▼

Knibbs

20

Smith

Manager: C. Calderwood

68'▲L. Hannant←▼H. Dunk

72'▲G. Maris←▼L. ONeil

77'▲M. Richards←▼H. Knibbs

Cambridge United substitutes

7Hannant10Maris18Richards9Dallas15John25Burton19Lambe

Manager: P. Hurst

27'▲R. Slater←▼A. Hammill

80'▲J. Clarke←▼H. McGahey

Scunthorpe substitutes

27Slater2Clarke5Songo'o25Eastwood48Dawson45McAtee18Hallam

League Two: Cambridge United 3–2 Scunthorpe

Cambridge United beat Scunthorpe 3-2 in League Two on August 20, 2019.

Goals: R. McArdle (41', 60'), H. Knibbs (52', 54'), P. Lewis (73').

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.

Cambridge United vs Scunthorpe — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

League Two: Cambridge United 3–2 Scunthorpe