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Scunthorpe vs Barrow — League Two 2018

Scunthorpe
Scunthorpe
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Barrow
Barrow
J. Rooney 44'
3/15/2022League TwoLeague Two · Round 37Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe36%
×Draw28%
Barrow36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Scunthorpe
1.17
Barrow
1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 138 away

creates per match

Scunthorpe
0.89
Barrow
0.99

allows per match

Scunthorpe
1.35
Barrow
1.44

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par
Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Barrow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw
64%
Scunthorpe or Barrow
72%
Draw or Barrow
64%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+
15%
Barrow wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals
69%
Scunthorpe 2+ goals
33%
Scunthorpe 3+ goals
11%
Barrow 1+ goals
69%
Barrow 2+ goals
33%
Barrow 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)
50%
Barrow (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Barrow attack 0.99 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more
36%
level
28%
Barrow scores more
36%

Scunthorpe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1
R. WatsonScunthorpeScunthorpe · G
7.9

Match Events

22'
Anthony Grant
32'
H. Lewis← M. OMalley
44'
J. Rooney↳ J. Gordon
46'
H. Hackney← S. Burns
75'
Tom Beadling
75'
R. Pyke← J. Nuttall
84'
Patrick Brough
89'
Rory Watson
90'
Tom Beadling
90'
Tom Beadling

Possession

34%Scunthorpe

Shots

8Scunthorpe

Pass accuracy

42%Scunthorpe

Statistics

ScunthorpeBarrow
Overview
34%Possession66%
8Total Shots18
3Corners11
13Fouls9
Shots
8Total Shots18
2On Target9
4Off Target8
2Blocked1
7Inside Box16
1Outside Box2
Passing
34%Possession66%
244Total Passes482
139Accurate Passes381
57%Pass Accuracy79%
Goalkeeping
6Saves2
Discipline
13Fouls9
1Yellow Cards3
1Red Cards1
0Offsides3

Match Recap: Scunthorpe vs Barrow

Barrow beat Scunthorpe 1-0 in League Two on March 15, 2022.

Goals: J. Rooney (44').

Barrow controlled possession (66%) and registered 18 shots to 8.

The match was played at Sands Stadium in Scunthorpe.