Barrow 1–0 Scunthorpe: Result & Stats | League Two

Barrow

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Scunthorpe

J. Kay 58'

1/16/2021

League Two · Round 24Progression Solicitors Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Barrow50%

×Draw26%

Scunthorpe24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarrowExpected goals in this matchScunthorpe

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Barrow

1.54

Scunthorpe

0.98

Barrow creates 57% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 64 away

1.20

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Barrow

1.20

Scunthorpe

0.83

allows per match

Barrow

1.12

Scunthorpe

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barrow+0.00on par

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barrow ↓

Scunthorpe →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barrow or draw

76%

Barrow or Scunthorpe

74%

Draw or Scunthorpe

50%

Winning margin

Barrow wins by 2+

26%

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barrow 1+ goals

79%

Barrow 2+ goals

45%

Barrow 3+ goals

20%

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

62%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

26%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barrow (draw refunded)

68%

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barrow at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Scunthorpe away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.88 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barrow attack 1.20 + Scunthorpe defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.54

Scunthorpe attack 0.83 + Barrow defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Barrow scores more

50%

level

26%

Scunthorpe scores more

24%

Barrow at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Barrow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

J. Karacan

Scunthorpe · M

8.2

Match Events

28'

Junior Brown

36'

Matthew Platt

46'

E. Onariase← H. McGahey

58'

J. Kay↳ H. Biggins

61'

Abobaker Eisa← R. Loft

74'

77'

86'

86'

89'

J. McAtee← A. Beestin

89'

D. Green← M. Hippolyte

90'

Josh Kay

90'

Scott Quigley

90+8'

J. Taylor← H. Biggins

90+3'

C. Taylor← L. Hardcastle

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BarrowScunthorpe

Overview

45%Possession55%

7Total Shots10

5Corners3

11Fouls11

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target4

0Off Target3

5Blocked3

3Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

378Total Passes451

249Accurate Passes301

66%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1