Scunthorpe 2–1 Barrow: Result & Stats | League Two

Scunthorpe

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Barrow

J. Clarke 90+1'

Abobaker Eisa 13'

S. Quigley 16'

12/15/2020

League Two · Round 18Sands Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Scunthorpe36%

×Draw28%

Barrow36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ScunthorpeExpected goals in this matchBarrow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

Scunthorpe

1.17

Barrow

1.17

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 65 home / 138 away

0.89

creates per match

0.99

1.35

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Scunthorpe

0.89

Barrow

0.99

allows per match

Scunthorpe

1.35

Barrow

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Scunthorpe+0.00on par

Barrow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Scunthorpe ↓

Barrow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Scunthorpe or draw

64%

Scunthorpe or Barrow

72%

Draw or Barrow

64%

Winning margin

Scunthorpe wins by 2+

15%

Barrow wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Scunthorpe 1+ goals

69%

Scunthorpe 2+ goals

33%

Scunthorpe 3+ goals

11%

Barrow 1+ goals

69%

Barrow 2+ goals

33%

Barrow 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Scunthorpe (draw refunded)

50%

Barrow (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Scunthorpe at home — creates 0.89, concedes 1.35 · 65 matches

Barrow away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.44 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Scunthorpe attack 0.89 + Barrow defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.17

Barrow attack 0.99 + Scunthorpe defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Scunthorpe scores more

36%

level

28%

Barrow scores more

36%

Scunthorpe at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Scunthorpe will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

M. Hippolyte

Scunthorpe · D

7.7

Match Events

13'

Abobaker Eisa↳ J. McAtee

16'

S. Quigley

31'

Jordan Clarke

33'

Scott Wilson

60'

T. Beadling← S. Wilson

61'

76'

81'

82'

87'

90'

90+3'

T. Cordner← L. Spence

90+1'

J. Clarke↳ Abobaker Eisa

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

ScunthorpeBarrow

Overview

53%Possession47%

11Total Shots9

6Corners8

16Fouls14

Shots

11Total Shots9

3On Target4

3Off Target3

5Blocked2

6Inside Box6

5Outside Box3

Passing

53%Possession47%

342Total Passes296

237Accurate Passes181

69%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

16Fouls14

2Yellow Cards2

2Offsides0