Schalke 04 U19 3–0 RW Oberhausen U19

Schalke 04 U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

RW Oberhausen U19

P. Buczkowski 90'

S. Kojic 82'

V. Becker 53'

3/4/2023

U19 Bundesliga · West - 14Parkstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Schalke 04 U1963%

×Draw20%

RW Oberhausen U1918%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.4%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.4% correct across 574,295 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Schalke 04 U19Expected goals in this matchRW Oberhausen U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.07

Schalke 04 U19

2.19

RW Oberhausen U19

1.07

Schalke 04 U19 creates 105% more chances

Season form · 63 home / 49 away

2.30

creates per match

1.20

0.95

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Schalke 04 U19

2.30

RW Oberhausen U19

1.20

allows per match

Schalke 04 U19

0.95

RW Oberhausen U19

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Schalke 04 U19 ↓

RW Oberhausen U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Schalke 04 U19 or draw

82%

Schalke 04 U19 or RW Oberhausen U19

80%

Draw or RW Oberhausen U19

37%

Winning margin

Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+

39%

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals

89%

Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals

64%

Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals

37%

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals

66%

RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals

29%

RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)

78%

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Schalke 04 U19 at home — creates 2.30, concedes 0.95 · 63 matches

RW Oberhausen U19 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.30 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.19

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.20 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Schalke 04 U19 scores more

63%

level

20%

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more

18%

Schalke 04 U19 at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

M. Hansen← N. Anubodem

46'

R. Ferreira← Y. Tonye

46'

S. Kojic← M. Grüger

53'

V. Becker

62'

F. Geißler← J. Symalla

67'

P. Buczkowski← T. Osmani

72'

A. Sancarbarlaz← A. Terzi

81'

Daniel Raul← L. Twumasi

82'

S. Kojic

83'

E. Lanfer← K. Topp

90'

P. Buczkowski

Schalke

RW

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: N. Elgert

46'▲M. Hansen←▼N. Anubodem

46'▲R. Ferreira←▼Y. Tonye

46'▲S. Kojic←▼M. Grüger

67'▲P. Buczkowski←▼T. Osmani

83'▲E. Lanfer←▼K. Topp

Schalke 04 U19 substitutes

HansenFerreiraKojicBuczkowskiLanferDörrNiklas

Manager: M. Kaya

62'▲F. Geißler←▼J. Symalla

72'▲A. Sancarbarlaz←▼A. Terzi

81'▲Daniel Raul←▼L. Twumasi

RW Oberhausen U19 substitutes

GeißlerSancarbarlazRaulPlathBöhmMagrouda