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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
CANC
11:00
Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
4/17/2021U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · West - 17Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1931%
×Draw23%
Schalke 04 U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
1.44
Schalke 04 U19
1.80

Schalke 04 U19 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 68 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.64
Schalke 04 U19
2.00

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
Schalke 04 U19
1.24

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
54%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Schalke 04 U19
77%
Draw or Schalke 04 U19
69%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
14%
Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
76%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
42%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
18%
Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
83%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
54%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
40%
Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.64 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.44

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
31%
level
23%
Schalke 04 U19 scores more
46%

Schalke 04 U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

RW Oberhausen U19 face Schalke 04 U19 (U19 Bundesliga)

U19 Bundesliga returns with RW Oberhausen U19 hosting Schalke 04 U19. Match starts April 17, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

RW Oberhausen U19 host Schalke 04 U19 at Nebenplatz Stadion Niederrhein.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.