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RW Oberhausen U19 vs Schalke 04 U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

RW Oberhausen U19
RW Oberhausen U19
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Schalke 04 U19
Schalke 04 U19
M. Tubić 78' (pen), 43'
A. Sidiki Sylla 74'
L. Vozar 14'
8/9/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 2Stadion Niederrhein

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

RW Oberhausen U1930%
×Draw23%
Schalke 04 U1947%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

RW Oberhausen U19
1.41
Schalke 04 U19
1.80

Schalke 04 U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 68 away

creates per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.58
Schalke 04 U19
2.00

allows per match

RW Oberhausen U19
1.60
Schalke 04 U19
1.24

finishing

RW Oberhausen U19+0.00on par
Schalke 04 U19+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

RW Oberhausen U19 ↓

Schalke 04 U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–36%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

RW Oberhausen U19 or draw
53%
RW Oberhausen U19 or Schalke 04 U19
77%
Draw or Schalke 04 U19
70%

Winning margin

RW Oberhausen U19 wins by 2+
14%
Schalke 04 U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

RW Oberhausen U19 1+ goals
76%
RW Oberhausen U19 2+ goals
41%
RW Oberhausen U19 3+ goals
17%
Schalke 04 U19 1+ goals
83%
Schalke 04 U19 2+ goals
54%
Schalke 04 U19 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

RW Oberhausen U19 (draw refunded)
39%
Schalke 04 U19 (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

RW Oberhausen U19 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.60 · 53 matches

Schalke 04 U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.24 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

RW Oberhausen U19 attack 1.58 + Schalke 04 U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.41

Schalke 04 U19 attack 2.00 + RW Oberhausen U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

RW Oberhausen U19 scores more
30%
level
23%
Schalke 04 U19 scores more
47%

Schalke 04 U19 at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Schalke 04 U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'
L. Vozar
43'
M. Tubić
74'
A. Sidiki Sylla
78'
M. TubićPenalty
RW
Schalke
M. Terranova
Manager: M. Terranova
N. Elgert
Manager: N. Elgert

RW Oberhausen U19 0 – 4 Schalke 04 U19

Schalke 04 U19 beat RW Oberhausen U19 4-0 in U19 Bundesliga on August 9, 2025.

Goals: L. Vozar (14'), M. Tubić (43', 78' pen), A. Sidiki Sylla (74').

The match was played at Stadion Niederrhein in Oberhausen.