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SC Paderborn 07 vs Preußen Münster — 2. Bundesliga 2018

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
1/25/20262. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 19Home Deluxe Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

SC Paderborn 0752%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.92
Preußen Münster
1.28

SC Paderborn 07 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 34 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.04
Preußen Münster
1.15

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.41
Preußen Münster
1.79

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
75%
SC Paderborn 07 or Preußen Münster
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster
48%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
30%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
85%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
57%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
30%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
72%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
37%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
67%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.41 · 120 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.79 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.04 + Preußen Münster defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.92

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
52%
level
22%
Preußen Münster scores more
25%

SC Paderborn 07 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

2. Bundesliga: SC Paderborn 07 2–1 Preußen Münster

SC Paderborn 07 beat Preußen Münster 2-1 in 2. Bundesliga on January 25, 2026.

The match was played at Home Deluxe Arena in Paderborn.