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Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07 — 2. Bundesliga 2018

Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
FT
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
9/13/20242. Bundesliga2. Bundesliga · Round 5Preußen-Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Preußen Münster34%
×Draw26%
SC Paderborn 0740%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Preußen Münster
1.25
SC Paderborn 07
1.37

SC Paderborn 07 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 120 away

creates per match

Preußen Münster
1.15
SC Paderborn 07
1.48

allows per match

Preußen Münster
1.26
SC Paderborn 07
1.35

finishing

Preußen Münster+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Preußen Münster ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Preußen Münster or draw
60%
Preußen Münster or SC Paderborn 07
74%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
66%

Winning margin

Preußen Münster wins by 2+
15%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Preußen Münster 1+ goals
71%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
36%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
13%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
75%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
40%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
46%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Preußen Münster at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.26 · 34 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.35 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Preußen Münster attack 1.15 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.25

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.48 + Preußen Münster defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Preußen Münster scores more
34%
level
26%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
40%

SC Paderborn 07 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "SC Paderborn 07 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Preußen Münster vs SC Paderborn 07

Preußen Münster and SC Paderborn 07 drew 3-3 in 2. Bundesliga on September 13, 2024.

The match was played at Preußen-Stadion in Münster.