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SC Paderborn 07 vs Preußen Münster — Friendlies Clubs 2026

SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
FT
6 – 1
HT: 5 – 0
Preußen Münster
Preußen Münster
1/14/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5TBC

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

SC Paderborn 0738%
×Draw22%
Preußen Münster40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

SC Paderborn 07
1.73
Preußen Münster
1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 9 away

creates per match

SC Paderborn 07
2.36
Preußen Münster
2.11

allows per match

SC Paderborn 07
1.45
Preußen Münster
1.11

finishing

SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par
Preußen Münster+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Paderborn 07 ↓

Preußen Münster →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

SC Paderborn 07 or draw
60%
SC Paderborn 07 or Preußen Münster
78%
Draw or Preußen Münster
62%

Winning margin

SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
19%
Preußen Münster wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
82%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
52%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
25%
Preußen Münster 1+ goals
83%
Preußen Münster 2+ goals
53%
Preußen Münster 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
49%
Preußen Münster (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Paderborn 07 at home — creates 2.36, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Preußen Münster away — creates 2.11, concedes 1.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Paderborn 07 attack 2.36 + Preußen Münster defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.73

Preußen Münster attack 2.11 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

SC Paderborn 07 scores more
38%
level
22%
Preußen Münster scores more
40%

Preußen Münster at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Preußen Münster will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: SC Paderborn 07 vs Preußen Münster

SC Paderborn 07 beat Preußen Münster 6-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 14, 2024.

The match was played at TBC in TBC.