SC Freiburg 1–1 Hertha Berlin: Result & Stats

SC Freiburg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Hertha Berlin

V. Grifo 52'

J. Ngankam 77'

4/1/2023

Bundesliga · Round 26Europa-Park Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

SC Freiburg51%

×Draw23%

Hertha Berlin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SC FreiburgExpected goals in this matchHertha Berlin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

1.25

SC Freiburg

1.83

Hertha Berlin

1.25

SC Freiburg creates 46% more chances

Season form · 117 home / 79 away

1.78

creates per match

1.19

1.32

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

SC Freiburg

1.78

Hertha Berlin

1.19

allows per match

SC Freiburg

1.32

Hertha Berlin

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

SC Freiburg+0.00on par

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

SC Freiburg ↓

Hertha Berlin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

SC Freiburg or draw

74%

SC Freiburg or Hertha Berlin

77%

Draw or Hertha Berlin

49%

Winning margin

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

28%

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

84%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

54%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

28%

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

71%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

36%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

66%

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

SC Freiburg at home — creates 1.78, concedes 1.32 · 117 matches

Hertha Berlin away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.89 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

SC Freiburg attack 1.78 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.83

Hertha Berlin attack 1.19 + SC Freiburg defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

SC Freiburg scores more

51%

level

23%

Hertha Berlin scores more

26%

SC Freiburg at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "SC Freiburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

9

L. Höler

SC Freiburg · F

8.0

Match Events

28'

Manuel Gulde

52'

V. Grifo↳ C. Günter

59'

J. Schmid← K. Schmidt

67'

S. Serdar← K. Boateng

67'

J. Ngankam← T. Ciğerci

76'

F. Niederlechner← F. Uremović

77'

J. Ngankam

85'

N. Petersen← L. Höler

87'

A. Rogel← W. Kanga

90+2'

Jessic Ngankam

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SCHertha

Overview

58%Possession42%

16Total Shots10

1.03Expected Goals (xG)1.89

2Corners2

7Fouls11

Shots

16Total Shots10

8On Target3

4Off Target6

4Blocked1

7Inside Box9

9Outside Box1

Passing

58%Possession42%

521Total Passes378

431Accurate Passes290

83%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

7Fouls11

1Yellow Cards1

2Offsides2