Hertha BSC 0–0 SC Freiburg: Result & Stats

Hertha BSC

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

SC Freiburg

F. Reese 104'

Y. Suzuki 96'

2/10/2026

DFB Pokal · Quarter-finalsOlympiastadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Hertha BSC42%

×Draw22%

SC Freiburg36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BSCExpected goals in this matchSC Freiburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.84

1.71

Hertha BSC

1.84

SC Freiburg

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

2.83

creates per match

2.08

1.33

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Hertha BSC

2.83

SC Freiburg

2.08

allows per match

Hertha BSC

1.33

SC Freiburg

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha BSC+0.00on par

SC Freiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha BSC ↓

SC Freiburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hertha BSC or draw

64%

Hertha BSC or SC Freiburg

78%

Draw or SC Freiburg

58%

Winning margin

Hertha BSC wins by 2+

22%

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Hertha BSC 1+ goals

84%

Hertha BSC 2+ goals

55%

Hertha BSC 3+ goals

28%

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

82%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

51%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Hertha BSC (draw refunded)

53%

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha BSC at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

SC Freiburg away — creates 2.08, concedes 0.85 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha BSC attack 2.83 + SC Freiburg defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

SC Freiburg attack 2.08 + Hertha BSC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Hertha BSC scores more

42%

level

22%

SC Freiburg scores more

36%

Hertha BSC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Hertha BSC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

T. Ernst

Hertha BSC · G

9.9

Match Events

10'

Fabian ReeseGoal cancelled

63'

V. Grifo← D. Scherhant

70'

Vincenzo Grifo

78'

C. Gunter← J. Makengo

78'

J. Manzambi← P. Osterhage

80'

L. Schuler← D. Kownacki

80'

J. Brekalo← M. Winkler

90+3'

Toni Leistner

96'

Y. Suzuki

99'

J. Dudziak← T. Leistner

104'

F. Reese↳ P. Seguin

105+2'

Paul Seguin

113'

L. Holer← I. Matanovic

116'

P. Klemens← J. Eitschberger

116'

C. Irie← J. Beste

119'

Jan Luca Schuler

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaSC

Overview

52%Possession48%

11Total Shots18

6Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

11Total Shots18

4On Target8

6Off Target7

1Blocked3

8Inside Box13

3Outside Box5

Passing

52%Possession48%

563Total Passes524

444Accurate Passes431

79%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

7Saves3

Discipline

14Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

2Offsides1