Hertha Berlin 1–2 SC Freiburg: Result & Stats

Hertha Berlin

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

SC Freiburg

K. Piątek 70'

N. Petersen 78'

P. Lienhart 17'

10/2/2021

Bundesliga · Round 7Olympiastadion Berlin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Hertha Berlin41%

×Draw24%

SC Freiburg35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 580,715 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.3% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hertha BerlinExpected goals in this matchSC Freiburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.43

Hertha Berlin

1.56

SC Freiburg

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 78 home / 111 away

1.36

creates per match

1.17

1.69

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Hertha Berlin

1.36

SC Freiburg

1.17

allows per match

Hertha Berlin

1.69

SC Freiburg

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hertha Berlin+0.00on par

SC Freiburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hertha Berlin ↓

SC Freiburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Hertha Berlin or draw

65%

Hertha Berlin or SC Freiburg

76%

Draw or SC Freiburg

59%

Winning margin

Hertha Berlin wins by 2+

20%

SC Freiburg wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Hertha Berlin 1+ goals

79%

Hertha Berlin 2+ goals

46%

Hertha Berlin 3+ goals

21%

SC Freiburg 1+ goals

76%

SC Freiburg 2+ goals

42%

SC Freiburg 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Hertha Berlin (draw refunded)

54%

SC Freiburg (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hertha Berlin at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.69 · 78 matches

SC Freiburg away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.76 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hertha Berlin attack 1.36 + SC Freiburg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.56

SC Freiburg attack 1.17 + Hertha Berlin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Hertha Berlin scores more

41%

level

24%

SC Freiburg scores more

35%

Hertha Berlin at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Hertha Berlin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

3

P. Lienhart

SC Freiburg · D

7.9

Match Events

17'

P. Lienhart↳ C. Günter

29'

Kevin-Prince Boateng

46'

P. Pekarík← D. Selke

46'

K. Piątek← M. Dárdai

59'

J. Ekkelenkamp← M. Richter

59'

D. Jastrzembski← K. Boateng

62'

Y. Keitel← M. Eggestein

64'

M. Mittelstädt← S. Jovetić

69'

Suat Serdar

70'

K. Piątek↳ M. Mittelstädt

76'

N. Petersen← V. Grifo

76'

E. Demirović← L. Höler

76'

R. Sallai← Jeong Woo-Yeong

78'

N. Petersen

84'

J. Haberer← L. Kübler

90+4'

Dennis Jastrzembski

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

HerthaSC

Overview

45%Possession55%

12Total Shots11

4Corners9

17Fouls15

Shots

12Total Shots11

3On Target5

7Off Target6

2Blocked0

5Inside Box8

7Outside Box3

Passing

45%Possession55%

361Total Passes457

280Accurate Passes371

78%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides5