Saxan 2–2 Dacia-Buiucani: Result & Stats

Saxan

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Dacia-Buiucani

B. Musteata 82'

A. Ghinaitis 79'

S. Turcan 85' (pen)

V. Nihaev 55'

4/5/2025

Super Liga · Promotion Group - 4Stadionul Satului

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Saxan67%

×Draw19%

Dacia-Buiucani15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SaxanExpected goals in this matchDacia-Buiucani

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

0.96

Saxan

2.28

Dacia-Buiucani

0.96

Saxan creates 138% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 73 away

3.07

creates per match

1.19

0.73

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Saxan

3.07

Dacia-Buiucani

1.19

allows per match

Saxan

0.73

Dacia-Buiucani

1.49

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saxan+0.00on par

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saxan ↓

Dacia-Buiucani →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Saxan or draw

85%

Saxan or Dacia-Buiucani

81%

Draw or Dacia-Buiucani

33%

Winning margin

Saxan wins by 2+

44%

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Saxan 1+ goals

90%

Saxan 2+ goals

66%

Saxan 3+ goals

39%

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals

62%

Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals

25%

Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Saxan (draw refunded)

82%

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saxan at home — creates 3.07, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Dacia-Buiucani away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.49 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saxan attack 3.07 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 2.28

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.19 + Saxan defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Saxan scores more

67%

level

19%

Dacia-Buiucani scores more

15%

Saxan at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

55'

V. Nihaev

79'

A. Ghinaitis

82'

B. Musteata

85'

S. TurcanPenalty

Saxan

Dacia-Buiucani

Manager: E. Molovata

Manager: V. Frunză