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Dacia-Buiucani vs Saxan — Super Liga 2026

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Saxan
Saxan
M. Focsa 69'
V. Dumbrava 59'
V. Pascari 8'
5/6/2025Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 9Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani32%
×Draw25%
Saxan43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
1.25
Saxan
1.50

Saxan creates 20% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 14 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.42
Saxan
1.64

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.36
Saxan
1.07

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–110%
0–27%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
57%
Dacia-Buiucani or Saxan
75%
Draw or Saxan
68%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
13%
Saxan wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
71%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
36%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
13%
Saxan 1+ goals
78%
Saxan 2+ goals
44%
Saxan 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
42%
Saxan (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.36 · 69 matches

Saxan away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.42 + Saxan defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Saxan attack 1.64 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
32%
level
25%
Saxan scores more
43%

Saxan at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
V. Pascari
59'
V. Dumbrava
69'
M. Focsa
Dacia-Buiucani
Saxan
V. Frunză
Manager: V. Frunză
E. Molovata
Manager: E. Molovata

Super Liga: Dacia-Buiucani 3–0 Saxan

Dacia-Buiucani beat Saxan 3-0 in Super Liga on May 6, 2025.

Goals: V. Pascari (8'), V. Dumbrava (59'), M. Focsa (69').

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.