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Dacia-Buiucani vs Saxan — Cupa 2020

Dacia-Buiucani
Dacia-Buiucani
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Saxan
Saxanadvanced
I. Efros 120+5' (pen)
M. Focsa 120+3' (pen)
R. Novicov 120+2' (pen)
S. Turcan 120+1' (pen)
O. David 120+5' (pen)
K. Shilchenko 120+4' (pen)
A. Sprinsean 120+3' (pen)
C. Pruteanu 120+2' (pen)
N. Celik 120+1' (pen)
3/2/2025CupaCupa · Round of 16Joma Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Dacia-Buiucani31%
×Draw19%
Saxan50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dacia-Buiucani
2.05
Saxan
2.58

Saxan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 7 away

creates per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.40
Saxan
3.57

allows per match

Dacia-Buiucani
1.60
Saxan
2.71

finishing

Dacia-Buiucani+0.00on par
Saxan+0.00on par

Total goals

84%Over
  • Over84
  • Under16

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

80%Yes
  • Yes80
  • No20

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dacia-Buiucani ↓

Saxan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–02%
1–15%
1–27%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–27%
2–36%
2–44%
3
3–01%
3–14%
3–25%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
84%16%3.5
67%33%4.5
48%52%

Double chance

Dacia-Buiucani or draw
50%
Dacia-Buiucani or Saxan
81%
Draw or Saxan
69%

Winning margin

Dacia-Buiucani wins by 2+
16%
Saxan wins by 2+
31%

Team goals

Dacia-Buiucani 1+ goals
87%
Dacia-Buiucani 2+ goals
61%
Dacia-Buiucani 3+ goals
33%
Saxan 1+ goals
92%
Saxan 2+ goals
72%
Saxan 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Dacia-Buiucani (draw refunded)
39%
Saxan (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
75%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dacia-Buiucani at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

Saxan away — creates 3.57, concedes 2.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dacia-Buiucani attack 1.40 + Saxan defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.05

Saxan attack 3.57 + Dacia-Buiucani defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Dacia-Buiucani scores more
31%
level
19%
Saxan scores more
50%

Saxan at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Saxan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

120+1'
S. TurcanPenalty
120+1'
N. CelikPenalty
120+2'
R. NovicovPenalty
120+2'
C. PruteanuPenalty
120+3'
M. FocsaPenalty
120+3'
A. SprinseanPenalty
120+4'
D. StraistaruMissed penalty
120+4'
K. ShilchenkoPenalty
120+5'
I. EfrosPenalty
120+5'
O. DavidPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Dacia-Buiucani vs Saxan

Dacia-Buiucani and Saxan drew 0-0 in Cupa on March 2, 2025.

Goals: S. Turcan (120+1' pen), N. Celik (120+1' pen), R. Novicov (120+2' pen), C. Pruteanu (120+2' pen), M. Focsa (120+3' pen), A. Sprinsean (120+3' pen), K. Shilchenko (120+4' pen), I. Efros (120+5' pen), O. David (120+5' pen).

The match was played at Joma Arena in Chişinău.