Saudi Arabia 1–2 Jordan: Result & Stats

Saudi Arabia

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 2

Jordan

A. Lajami 16'

N. Al Rawabdeh 45'

A. Olwan 27'

6/11/2024

League #30 · 2nd Round - Group G - 6King Saud University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Saudi Arabia69%

×Draw19%

Jordan12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Saudi ArabiaExpected goals in this matchJordan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

0.78

Saudi Arabia

2.17

Jordan

0.78

Saudi Arabia creates 178% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

1.00

0.57

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Saudi Arabia

2.00

Jordan

1.00

allows per match

Saudi Arabia

0.57

Jordan

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Jordan+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Saudi Arabia ↓

Jordan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–19%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–14%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Saudi Arabia or draw

88%

Saudi Arabia or Jordan

81%

Draw or Jordan

31%

Winning margin

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

45%

Jordan wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

89%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

64%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

36%

Jordan 1+ goals

54%

Jordan 2+ goals

18%

Jordan 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

85%

Jordan (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Saudi Arabia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.57 · 7 matches

Jordan away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Saudi Arabia attack 2.00 + Jordan defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Jordan attack 1.00 + Saudi Arabia defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Saudi Arabia scores more

69%

level

19%

Jordan scores more

12%

Saudi Arabia at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

M. Al Juwayr

Saudi Arabia · M

7.9

Match Events

16'

A. Lajami↳ M. Al Juwayr

21'

Mahmoud Al-Mardi

27'

A. Olwan

35'

A. Al Kassar← M. Al Owais

45+4'

Abdullah Alkhaibari

45'

Nasser Al-Dawsari

45'

N. Al Rawabdeh

46'

M. Al Harbi← N. Al Dawsari

63'

A. Radif← F. Al Buraikan

63'

A. Ghareeb← A. Al Khaibari

73'

M. Abu Hasheesh← M. Al Mardi

73'

Ibrahim Sa'deh← N. Al Rashdan

76'

Ehsan Haddad

82'

M. Abu Taha← A. Olwan

85'

Ali Albulayhi

86'

M. Ali← S. Al Dawsari

90+1'

Yazeed Abulaila

90+7'

R. Ayed← M. Tamari

90+7'

M. Shawkat← N. Al Rawabdeh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SaudiJordan

Overview

71%Possession29%

17Total Shots10

7Corners3

13Fouls11

Shots

17Total Shots10

6On Target4

6Off Target4

5Blocked2

9Inside Box4

8Outside Box6

Passing

71%Possession29%

599Total Passes246

534Accurate Passes188

89%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves5

Discipline

13Fouls11

3Yellow Cards3

5Offsides3