Jordan 0–2 Saudi Arabia: Result & Stats

Jordan

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Saudi Arabia

S. Al Shehri 30', 8'

11/21/2023

League #30 · 2nd Round - Group G - 2Amman International Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Jordan30%

×Draw31%

Saudi Arabia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JordanExpected goals in this matchSaudi Arabia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.92

1.08

Jordan

0.92

Saudi Arabia

1.08

Saudi Arabia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.17

1.00

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Jordan

0.67

Saudi Arabia

1.17

allows per match

Jordan

1.00

Saudi Arabia

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jordan+0.00on par

Saudi Arabia+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jordan ↓

Saudi Arabia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–115%

0–28%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Jordan or draw

61%

Jordan or Saudi Arabia

69%

Draw or Saudi Arabia

70%

Winning margin

Jordan wins by 2+

11%

Saudi Arabia wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Jordan 1+ goals

60%

Jordan 2+ goals

23%

Jordan 3+ goals

7%

Saudi Arabia 1+ goals

66%

Saudi Arabia 2+ goals

29%

Saudi Arabia 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Jordan (draw refunded)

44%

Saudi Arabia (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jordan at home — creates 0.67, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Saudi Arabia away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jordan attack 0.67 + Saudi Arabia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 0.92

Saudi Arabia attack 1.17 + Jordan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Jordan scores more

30%

level

31%

Saudi Arabia scores more

39%

Saudi Arabia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Saudi Arabia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

S. Al Shehri

Saudi Arabia · F

8.2

Match Events

8'

S. Al Shehri↳ A. Al Hassan

30'

S. Al Shehri↳ A. A. Hazazi

40'

Mohammad Ali Hasheesh

45'

Abdallah Nasib

46'

M. Kamal← M. Abu Hasheesh

46'

M. Ali← A. A. Hazazi

56'

A. Ghareeb← A. Al Hassan

61'

M. Al Mardi← R. Ayed

66'

E. Al Muwallad← S. Al Shehri

78'

Ali Al-Boleahi

82'

F. Al Ghamdi← A. Al Malki

82'

M. Maran← A. Radif

84'

Nizar Mahmoud Al-Rashdan

86'

S. Rateb← A. Olwan

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

JordanSaudi

Overview

56%Possession44%

17Total Shots7

8Corners1

13Fouls17

Shots

17Total Shots7

4On Target2

8Off Target5

5Blocked0

9Inside Box6

8Outside Box1

Passing

56%Possession44%

457Total Passes367

374Accurate Passes290

82%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

0Saves4

Discipline

13Fouls17

3Yellow Cards1

9Offsides0