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Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Stromsgodset — Eliteserien 2026

Sarpsborg 08 FF
Sarpsborg 08 FF
CANC
00:00
Stromsgodset
Stromsgodset
10/30/2021EliteserienEliteserien · Round 27Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF52%
×Draw23%
Stromsgodset26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.88
Stromsgodset
1.26

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 36 away

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.67
Stromsgodset
1.06

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF
1.46
Stromsgodset
2.08

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less
Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over: 61Under: 3961%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 61No: 3961%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Stromsgodset →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw
74%
Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset
77%
Draw or Stromsgodset
48%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+
29%
Stromsgodset wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals
85%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals
56%
Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals
29%
Stromsgodset 1+ goals
72%
Stromsgodset 2+ goals
36%
Stromsgodset 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)
67%
Stromsgodset (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 40 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.67 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more
52%
level
23%
Stromsgodset scores more
26%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Sarpsborg 08 FF host Stromsgodset

October 30, 2021: Sarpsborg 08 FF take on Stromsgodset in Eliteserien. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Sarpsborg 08 FF host Stromsgodset at Sarpsborg Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.