Sarpsborg 08 FF 2–3 Stromsgodset: Result & Stats

Sarpsborg 08 FF

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Stromsgodset

M. Abdellaoue 79' (pen), 52'

J. Hove 54'

M. Maigaard 33' (pen), 30' (pen)

6/25/2020

Eliteserien · Round 3Sarpsborg Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 36+ matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF52%

×Draw23%

Stromsgodset26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarpsborg 08 FFExpected goals in this matchStromsgodset

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

1.26

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.88

Stromsgodset

1.26

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 49% more chances

Season form · 40 home / 36 away

1.67

creates per match

1.06

1.46

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.67

Stromsgodset

1.06

allows per match

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.46

Stromsgodset

2.08

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.10scores less

Stromsgodset+0.02on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓

Stromsgodset →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Sarpsborg 08 FF or draw

74%

Sarpsborg 08 FF or Stromsgodset

77%

Draw or Stromsgodset

48%

Winning margin

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

29%

Stromsgodset wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

85%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

56%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

29%

Stromsgodset 1+ goals

72%

Stromsgodset 2+ goals

36%

Stromsgodset 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

67%

Stromsgodset (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.46 · 40 matches

Stromsgodset away — creates 1.06, concedes 2.08 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.67 + Stromsgodset defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.88

Stromsgodset attack 1.06 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

52%

level

23%

Stromsgodset scores more

26%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

30

M. Abdellaoue

Sarpsborg 08 FF · F

8.3

Match Events

30'

M. MaigaardPenalty

32'

Bjorn Utvik

33'

M. MaigaardPenalty

52'

M. Abdellaoue↳ O. Halvorsen

54'

J. Hove

55'

J. Lindseth← G. Vetti

56'

Niklas Gunnarsson

60'

A. Jakobsen← S. Bojang

65'

Ari Leifsson

72'

J. Soltvedt← J. Horn

72'

J. Larsen← M. Ofkir

72'

H. Stengel← K. Tokstad

72'

M. Mølvadgaard← M. Mawa

74'

Alexander Jakobsen

79'

M. AbdellaouePenalty

84'

S. Pop← N. Gunnarsson

90'

Marcus Molvadgaard

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarpsborgStromsgodset

Overview

53%Possession47%

25Total Shots13

7Corners2

15Fouls20

Shots

25Total Shots13

10On Target6

9Off Target3

6Blocked4

19Inside Box8

6Outside Box5

Passing

53%Possession47%

370Total Passes347

275Accurate Passes250

74%Pass Accuracy72%

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

Discipline

15Fouls20

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides3