Sarpsborg 08 FF vs Kristiansund BK — Eliteserien 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 10+ matches
Sarpsborg 08 FF50%
Kristiansund BK26%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 45% more chances
Season form · 10 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes60
- No40
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sarpsborg 08 FF ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sarpsborg 08 FF at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.62 · 10 matches
Kristiansund BK away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.14 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.48 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.81
Kristiansund BK attack 0.88 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.25
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 50%?"
Sarpsborg 08 FF at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 50% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Kristiansund BK substitutes
Head to Head
Viking
Bodo/Glimt
Tromso
Brann
Sandefjord
Valerenga
Rosenborg
FredrikstadSarpsborg 08 FF
Molde
Ham-Kam
KFUM OsloKristiansund BK
Bryne
Stromsgodset
HaugesundIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sarpsborg 08 FF host Kristiansund BK on Monday, 25 August 2025 at 17:00. The match is part of the Eliteserien 2026/2027 season.
Eliteserien: Sarpsborg 08 FF 0–1 Kristiansund BK
Kristiansund BK beat Sarpsborg 08 FF 1-0 in Eliteserien on August 25, 2025.
Goals: D. Tufekcic (38').
Sarpsborg 08 FF controlled possession (56%) and registered 11 shots to 12.
The match was played at Sarpsborg Stadion in Sarpsborg.