Kristiansund BK 0–0 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

7/13/2025

Eliteserien · Round 13Kristiansund Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Kristiansund BK27%

×Draw21%

Sarpsborg 08 FF51%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

2.05

Kristiansund BK

1.44

Sarpsborg 08 FF

2.05

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 42% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.03

creates per match

1.86

2.24

allows per match

1.85

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.03

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.86

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

2.24

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.85

+0.30scores more than expected

finishing

-0.30scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.30scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.30scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

49%

Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08 FF

79%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

73%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

12%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

76%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

42%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

18%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

87%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

61%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

34%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.24 · 9 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.85 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.03 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.44

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.86 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.24 → ÷2 → 2.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

27%

level

21%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

51%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26

A. Skjaerstein

Kristiansund BK · G

8.9

Match Events

14'

Marius Olsen

14'

Marius OlsenCard upgrade

17'

I. Jelicic← R. Corlu

33'

Sander Christiansen

49'

Ruben Alte

60'

J. Berget← A. Sanyang

60'

N. Sandberg← S. Christiansen

64'

A. Ndour← M. Isah

69'

H. Bruseth← H. Tangen

69'

P. Reinhardsen← E. Wichne

81'

M. Williamsen← F. Flex

81'

L. Alvheim← R. Alte

81'

S. Gudjohnsen← M. Jeahze

87'

Menno Koch

90+5'

Niklas Sandberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundSarpsborg

Overview

31%Possession69%

6Total Shots32

0.72Expected Goals (xG)3.83

4Corners12

3Fouls6

Shots

6Total Shots32

3On Target9

1Off Target14

2Blocked9

4Inside Box25

2Outside Box7

Passing

31%Possession69%

307Total Passes634

230Accurate Passes560

75%Pass Accuracy88%

Goalkeeping

9Saves2

Discipline

3Fouls6

1Yellow Cards3

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2