Kristiansund BK 3–1 Sarpsborg 08 FF: Result & Stats

Kristiansund BK

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Sarpsborg 08 FF

J. Isaksen 82'

H. Mikaelsson 75' (pen)

P. Guèye 68'

S. Ørjasæter 86'

6/2/2024

Eliteserien · Round 11Nordmøre stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Kristiansund BK31%

×Draw22%

Sarpsborg 08 FF47%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kristiansund BKExpected goals in this matchSarpsborg 08 FF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.94

Kristiansund BK

1.55

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.94

Sarpsborg 08 FF creates 25% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 10 away

1.18

creates per match

1.76

2.11

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Kristiansund BK

1.18

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.76

allows per match

Kristiansund BK

2.11

Sarpsborg 08 FF

1.92

+0.32scores more than expected

finishing

-0.26scores less than expected

finishing

Kristiansund BK+0.32scores more

Sarpsborg 08 FF-0.26scores less

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kristiansund BK ↓

Sarpsborg 08 FF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Kristiansund BK or draw

53%

Kristiansund BK or Sarpsborg 08 FF

78%

Draw or Sarpsborg 08 FF

69%

Winning margin

Kristiansund BK wins by 2+

15%

Sarpsborg 08 FF wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kristiansund BK 1+ goals

79%

Kristiansund BK 2+ goals

46%

Kristiansund BK 3+ goals

20%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 1+ goals

86%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 2+ goals

58%

Sarpsborg 08 FF 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kristiansund BK (draw refunded)

40%

Sarpsborg 08 FF (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kristiansund BK at home — creates 1.18, concedes 2.11 · 10 matches

Sarpsborg 08 FF away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.92 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kristiansund BK attack 1.18 + Sarpsborg 08 FF defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 1.55

Sarpsborg 08 FF attack 1.76 + Kristiansund BK defence 2.11 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kristiansund BK scores more

31%

level

22%

Sarpsborg 08 FF scores more

47%

Sarpsborg 08 FF at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sarpsborg 08 FF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Alte

Kristiansund BK · M

8.5

Match Events

26'

Oskar Siira Sivertsen

30'

Paweł Chrupałła

65'

Hilmir Rafn Mikaelsson

65'

Jeppe Andersen

68'

P. Guèye↳ R. Alte

69'

H. Meister← M. Andersen

69'

V. Halvorsen← S. Johansen

70'

F. Nyenetue← O. Sivertsen

75'

H. MikaelssonPenalty

79'

E. Wichne← P. Reinhardsen

82'

J. Isaksen↳ R. Alte

86'

S. Ørjasæter↳ A. Hiim

87'

A. Hopmark← R. Alte

87'

W. Igor← H. Bruseth

87'

C. Aasbak← P. Guèye

88'

L. Alvheim← M. Rakneberg

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

KristiansundSarpsborg

Overview

49%Possession51%

11Total Shots16

2.52Expected Goals (xG)0.91

3Corners3

10Fouls16

Shots

11Total Shots16

5On Target4

3Off Target7

3Blocked5

10Inside Box8

1Outside Box8

Passing

49%Possession51%

430Total Passes459

345Accurate Passes383

80%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

10Fouls16

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides4