Sarmiento Junin vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on xG from last 15+ matches
Sarmiento Junin34%
San Lorenzo33%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 15 home / 17 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under73
- Over27
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No64
- Yes36
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Sarmiento Junin ↓
Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 15 matches
San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Sarmiento Junin attack 0.91 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92
San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 34%?"
Sarmiento Junin at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 34% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
San Lorenzo substitutes
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Boca Juniors
Rosario Central
Estudiantes L.P.
Argentinos JRS
River Plate
Racing Club
Gimnasia L.P.
Belgrano Cordoba
Velez Sarsfield
Lanus
Independ. Rivadavia
Union Santa FeSan Lorenzo
Talleres Cordoba
Tigre
Barracas Central
Huracan
Central Cordoba de Santiago
Independiente
Deportivo Riestra
BanfieldSarmiento Junin
Defensa Y Justicia
Instituto Cordoba
Atletico Tucuman
Newells Old Boys
Platense
Aldosivi
San Martin S.J.
Gimnasia M.
Godoy Cruz
Estudiantes de Rio CuartoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Sarmiento Junin host San Lorenzo on Saturday, 3 May 2025 at 19:00. The match is part of the Liga Profesional Argentina 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs San Lorenzo
Sarmiento Junin and San Lorenzo drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on May 3, 2025.
Goals: A. Vombergar (37' o.g.), A. Molina (87' o.g.).
San Lorenzo controlled possession (65%) and registered 10 shots to 6.
The match was played at Estadio Eva Peron in Junin.