San Lorenzo 1–1 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

San Lorenzo

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

N. Tripichio 2'

C. Villalba 90'

11/15/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Pedro Bidegain

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

San Lorenzo53%

×Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

San LorenzoExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

0.59

San Lorenzo

1.25

Sarmiento Junin

0.59

San Lorenzo creates 112% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 11 away

1.25

creates per match

0.55

0.64

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

San Lorenzo

1.25

Sarmiento Junin

0.55

allows per match

San Lorenzo

0.64

Sarmiento Junin

1.25

-0.39scores less than expected

finishing

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

San Lorenzo-0.39scores less

Sarmiento Junin+0.27scores more

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

San Lorenzo ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

San Lorenzo or draw

82%

San Lorenzo or Sarmiento Junin

70%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

47%

Winning margin

San Lorenzo wins by 2+

24%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

San Lorenzo 1+ goals

71%

San Lorenzo 2+ goals

36%

San Lorenzo 3+ goals

13%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

45%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

San Lorenzo (draw refunded)

75%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

San Lorenzo at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.55, concedes 1.25 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

San Lorenzo attack 1.25 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.25

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.55 + San Lorenzo defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

San Lorenzo scores more

53%

level

30%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

18%

San Lorenzo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "San Lorenzo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

25

C. Villalba

Sarmiento Junin · M

8.0

Match Events

2'

23'

28'

32'

34'

N. Dominguez← D. Herrera

42'

Joel Godoy

46'

C. Villalba← J. Gomez

46'

Y. Arismendi← J. Godoy

46'

L. Pratto← F. Frias

61'

J. Rattalino← N. Tripichio

61'

M. Reali← A. Ladstatter

61'

65'

70'

74'

75'

E. Cecchini← F. Gulli

75'

Salinardi Branco← E. Cerutti

80'

Matias Reali

87'

B. Marquez← J. Renteria

90+5'

Branco Salinardi

90+2'

Gastón Alan Hernández

90'

Carlos Villalba

90'

C. Villalba

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SanSarmiento

Overview

37%Possession63%

10Total Shots5

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.20

1Corners8

17Fouls22

Shots

10Total Shots5

2On Target2

5Off Target2

3Blocked1

3Inside Box1

7Outside Box4

Passing

37%Possession63%

196Total Passes325

107Accurate Passes247

55%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

-0.10Goals Prevented-0.10

Discipline

17Fouls22

5Yellow Cards6

2Offsides2

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Sarmiento Junin

San Lorenzo and Sarmiento Junin drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on November 15, 2025.

Goals: N. Tripichio (2'), C. Villalba (90').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (63%) and registered 5 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Pedro Bidegain in Buenos Aires.

San Lorenzo vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: San Lorenzo vs Sarmiento Junin