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Sarmiento Junin vs San Lorenzo — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Sarmiento Junin
Sarmiento Junin
FT
2 – 4
HT: 1 – 3
San Lorenzo
San Lorenzo
F. Quinteros 81'
L. Gondou 25'
M. Braida 61', 18'
A. Bareiro 45'
A. Vombergar 42'
10/18/2022Liga Profesional ArgentinaLiga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 26Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Sarmiento Junin34%
×Draw33%
San Lorenzo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sarmiento Junin
0.92
San Lorenzo
0.90

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin
0.91
San Lorenzo
0.86

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin
0.94
San Lorenzo
0.93

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.11scores less
San Lorenzo+0.08on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

San Lorenzo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–115%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw
67%
Sarmiento Junin or San Lorenzo
67%
Draw or San Lorenzo
66%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+
12%
San Lorenzo wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals
60%
Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals
23%
Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals
7%
San Lorenzo 1+ goals
59%
San Lorenzo 2+ goals
23%
San Lorenzo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)
51%
San Lorenzo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 15 matches

San Lorenzo away — creates 0.86, concedes 0.93 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.91 + San Lorenzo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.92

San Lorenzo attack 0.86 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more
34%
level
33%
San Lorenzo scores more
33%

Sarmiento Junin at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

21
M. BraidaSan LorenzoSan Lorenzo · M
9.2

Match Events

18'
M. Braida↳ G. Campi
25'
L. Gondou↳ L. Castro
30'
F. Andueza
30'
N. Barrios
42'
A. Vombergar↳ N. Barrios
45'
A. Bareiro↳ N. Barrios
46'
G. Bettini← J. Rosso
46'
F. Quinteros← F. Rasmussen
60'
M. Guanini
61'
M. Braida↳ G. Campi
63'
N. Ortigoza← E. Cerutti
65'
F. Martinez
65'
D. Gallardo← Y. Arismendi
70'
I. Leguizamón← N. Barrios
73'
L. López← J. Toledo
73'
J. Brea← L. Castro
76'
A. Bareiro
81'
F. Quinteros↳ G. Bettini
87'
F. Perruzzi← A. Bareiro
87'
D. Calcaterra← G. Luján

Possession

55%Sarmiento

Shots

17Sarmiento

Pass accuracy

51%Sarmiento

Statistics

SarmientoSan
Overview
55%Possession45%
17Total Shots14
4Corners6
10Fouls13
Shots
17Total Shots14
4On Target5
10Off Target6
3Blocked3
9Inside Box8
8Outside Box6
Passing
55%Possession45%
379Total Passes319
292Accurate Passes234
77%Pass Accuracy73%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
10Fouls13
3Yellow Cards2
2Offsides1

Liga Profesional Argentina: Sarmiento Junin 2–4 San Lorenzo

San Lorenzo beat Sarmiento Junin 4-2 in Liga Profesional Argentina on October 18, 2022.

Goals: M. Braida (18', 61'), L. Gondou (25'), A. Vombergar (42'), A. Bareiro (45'), F. Quinteros (81').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (55%) and registered 17 shots to 14.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.