Sarmiento Junin 3–1 Patronato: Result & Stats

Sarmiento Junin

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Patronato

J. Toledo 90'

R. Lozano 52' (OG)

F. Quinteros 27'

D. García 42'

6/18/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 4Estadio Eva Perón de Junín

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Sarmiento Junin47%

×Draw27%

Patronato26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchPatronato

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

0.98

Sarmiento Junin

1.41

Patronato

0.98

Sarmiento Junin creates 44% more chances

Season form · 91 home / 69 away

1.12

creates per match

0.83

1.12

allows per match

1.70

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.12

Patronato

0.83

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

1.12

Patronato

1.70

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Patronato+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Patronato →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

74%

Sarmiento Junin or Patronato

73%

Draw or Patronato

53%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

23%

Patronato wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

76%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

41%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

17%

Patronato 1+ goals

62%

Patronato 2+ goals

26%

Patronato 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

64%

Patronato (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 1.12, concedes 1.12 · 91 matches

Patronato away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.70 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 1.12 + Patronato defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.41

Patronato attack 0.83 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

47%

level

27%

Patronato scores more

26%

Sarmiento Junin at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

F. Rasmussen

Sarmiento Junin · D

7.5

Match Events

27'

30'

30'

42'

45+4'

45+2'

Axel RodriguezPenalty awarded

46'

J. Brea← M. Guanini

46'

J. Acevedo← S. Medina

52'

R. LozanoOwn goal

54'

Emiliano Méndez

64'

Leonel Mosevich

64'

Leonel Mosevich

68'

M. Estigarribia← J. Herrera

68'

A. Sosa← A. Rodríguez

69'

F. Álvarez← F. Leys

81'

J. Valdez← N. Castro

83'

J. Toledo← L. López

83'

H. Mancilla← L. Castro

87'

88'

90+5'

90+6'

90+6'

Diego GarcíaCard upgrade

90+2'

Y. Garnier← E. Méndez

90'

J. Toledo

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoPatronato

Overview

46%Possession54%

23Total Shots8

10Corners2

17Fouls15

Shots

23Total Shots8

8On Target4

10Off Target3

5Blocked1

17Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

46%Possession54%

263Total Passes318

140Accurate Passes195

53%Pass Accuracy61%

Goalkeeping

3Saves6

Discipline

17Fouls15

3Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards2

1Offsides2

Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs Patronato

Sarmiento Junin beat Patronato 3-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on June 18, 2022.

Goals: F. Quinteros (27'), D. García (42'), R. Lozano (52' o.g.), J. Toledo (90').

Patronato controlled possession (54%) and registered 8 shots to 23.

The match was played at Estadio Eva Perón de Junín in Junín, Provincia de Buenos Aires.

Sarmiento Junin vs Patronato — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sarmiento Junin vs Patronato