Patronato 1–0 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sarmiento Junin

M. Garay 71'

4/24/2021

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 11Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato44%

×Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.85

Patronato

1.20

Sarmiento Junin

0.85

Patronato creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

0.60

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Patronato

1.09

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

allows per match

Patronato

1.11

Sarmiento Junin

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

74%

Patronato or Sarmiento Junin

70%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

56%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

19%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

70%

Patronato 2+ goals

34%

Patronato 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

57%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

21%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

63%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Patronato scores more

44%

level

30%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

26%

Patronato at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

G. Canto

Patronato · D

7.5

Match Events

26'

46'

57'

65'

68'

70'

B. Borasi← G. Graciani

71'

M. Garay

74'

B. Urribarri← M. Garay

74'

E. Montaño← F. Castet

82'

Bruno Urribarri

85'

L. Gondou← Martín García

85'

L. Montoya← G. Alanís

86'

Junior Arias

87'

D. Lemos← N. Delgadillo

87'

89'

90+4'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoSarmiento

Overview

47%Possession53%

10Total Shots6

2Corners5

14Fouls9

Shots

10Total Shots6

5On Target1

4Off Target3

1Blocked2

2Inside Box3

8Outside Box3

Passing

47%Possession53%

346Total Passes376

218Accurate Passes248

63%Pass Accuracy66%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls9

5Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 1–0 Sarmiento Junin

Patronato beat Sarmiento Junin 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on April 24, 2021.

Goals: M. Garay (71').

Sarmiento Junin controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 10.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Patronato vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 1–0 Sarmiento Junin