Patronato 0–1 Sarmiento Junin: Result & Stats

Patronato

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Sarmiento Junin

J. Torres 15'

3/5/2022

Liga Profesional Argentina · 1st Phase - 5Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Patronato44%

×Draw30%

Sarmiento Junin26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PatronatoExpected goals in this matchSarmiento Junin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.85

Patronato

1.20

Sarmiento Junin

0.85

Patronato creates 41% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 91 away

1.09

creates per match

0.60

1.11

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Patronato

1.09

Sarmiento Junin

0.60

allows per match

Patronato

1.11

Sarmiento Junin

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Patronato+0.00on par

Sarmiento Junin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Patronato ↓

Sarmiento Junin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Patronato or draw

74%

Patronato or Sarmiento Junin

70%

Draw or Sarmiento Junin

56%

Winning margin

Patronato wins by 2+

19%

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Patronato 1+ goals

70%

Patronato 2+ goals

34%

Patronato 3+ goals

12%

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

57%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

21%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Patronato (draw refunded)

63%

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Patronato at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Sarmiento Junin away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.31 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Patronato attack 1.09 + Sarmiento Junin defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.60 + Patronato defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Patronato scores more

44%

level

30%

Sarmiento Junin scores more

26%

Patronato at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Patronato will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

38

J. Ayala

Sarmiento Junin · G

8.3

Match Events

15'

J. Torres↳ S. Quiroga

36'

38'

45+4'

60'

62'

Y. Arismendi← J. Brea

62'

G. Mainero← S. Quiroga

68'

H. Mancilla← J. Toledo

68'

F. Vismara← J. Chicco

74'

J. Herrera← L. Barrios

74'

J. Valdez← N. Castro

84'

V. Pereyra← F. Cobos

84'

T. Banega← F. Vázquez

85'

L. Gondou← J. Torres

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PatronatoSarmiento

Overview

65%Possession35%

32Total Shots8

14Corners2

17Fouls16

Shots

32Total Shots8

7On Target3

12Off Target4

13Blocked1

18Inside Box2

14Outside Box6

Passing

65%Possession35%

372Total Passes229

264Accurate Passes111

71%Pass Accuracy48%

Goalkeeping

2Saves7

Discipline

17Fouls16

2Yellow Cards1

0Offsides3

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Sarmiento Junin

Sarmiento Junin beat Patronato 1-0 in Liga Profesional Argentina on March 5, 2022.

Goals: J. Torres (15').

Patronato controlled possession (65%) and registered 32 shots to 8.

The match was played at Estadio Presbítero Bartolomé Grella in Paraná, Provincia de Entre Ríos.

Patronato vs Sarmiento Junin — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Liga Profesional Argentina: Patronato 0–1 Sarmiento Junin