Sarmiento Junin 2–1 Instituto Cordoba

Sarmiento Junin

FT

2 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Instituto Cordoba

M. Garcia 6'

J. Insaurralde 2'

S. Moreyra 67'

11/9/2025

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 15Estadio Eva Peron

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Sarmiento Junin35%

×Draw32%

Instituto Cordoba33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sarmiento JuninExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.98

0.94

Sarmiento Junin

0.98

Instituto Cordoba

0.94

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 14 away

0.91

creates per match

0.95

0.94

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.91

Instituto Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Sarmiento Junin

0.94

Instituto Cordoba

1.05

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Sarmiento Junin-0.11scores less

Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sarmiento Junin ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–114%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Sarmiento Junin or draw

67%

Sarmiento Junin or Instituto Cordoba

68%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

65%

Winning margin

Sarmiento Junin wins by 2+

13%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Sarmiento Junin 1+ goals

62%

Sarmiento Junin 2+ goals

26%

Sarmiento Junin 3+ goals

8%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Sarmiento Junin (draw refunded)

52%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sarmiento Junin at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 15 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sarmiento Junin attack 0.91 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.98

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Sarmiento Junin defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Sarmiento Junin scores more

35%

level

32%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

33%

Sarmiento Junin at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Sarmiento Junin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

2

J. Insaurralde

Sarmiento Junin · D

8.3

Match Events

2'

J. Insaurralde↳ J. Contrera

6'

M. Garcia↳ F. Frias

32'

Juan Manuel Insaurralde

46'

S. Moreyra← J. Mendez

46'

M. Fonseca← J. Romero

51'

Julian Contrera

53'

Stefano Moreyra

54'

L. Pratto← F. Frias

61'

M. Gallardo← G. A. Lodico

61'

J. Lazaro← A. Luna

67'

S. Moreyra↳ M. Fonseca

70'

Jonatan Gómez

70'

A. Seyral← I. Morales

70'

C. Villalba← J. Gomez

79'

Y. Arismendi← A. Vigo

81'

J. Acevedo← E. Pereyra

89'

Agustín Seyral

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SarmientoInstituto

Overview

38%Possession62%

13Total Shots12

0.92Expected Goals (xG)1.00

3Corners7

18Fouls13

Shots

13Total Shots12

5On Target3

3Off Target4

5Blocked5

9Inside Box5

4Outside Box7

Passing

38%Possession62%

252Total Passes399

174Accurate Passes314

69%Pass Accuracy79%

Goalkeeping

2Saves3

-0.67Goals Prevented-0.67

Discipline

18Fouls13

4Yellow Cards1

1Offsides0